I spent part of my working life on what Paul Krugman, pop star economist, and Nobel Prize winner, calls up and down economics: writing pieces describing that the value of things (stocks, currencies, gold) has gone up today, or down. And why.
You usually have to take a knock at why prices, because no one constantly gauges the motives of hundreds of thousands of investors around the world, so you usually read things back in stock market quotes like ‘analysts think’ or ‘connoisseurs attribute the unexpected sales wave in X to’. And then with some certainty follows something about the situation in China, the disappointing quarterly results of Apple that resonate to the interior of Brazil, a ‘negative surprise’ about the Italian budget and a windfall elsewhere that apparently was ‘already priced in’, because otherwise the rates had moved the other way. Events that take place at the same time, but whether there are causal connections, and how they exactly run, are not even known by the analyst. She/he also dicks something.
Joseph de la Vega wrote in his handbook on speculation in the 17th century at the oldest stock exchange in the world – that of Amsterdam – not for nothing that ‘no one has to give any advice at the point of action because the success there is kind of witchcraft is difficult to make a good figure
Nevertheless, a consistent story can always be constructed in the long term around price movements, because there is something tangible underneath. Business activities that you can follow, management with a strategy that you can have a well-founded opinion about, things that you can attach a value to, and that you can have an informed expectation about and that you can attach risk too. Or decisions by governments, monetary policy, geopolitical developments that provoke logical explanations.
You don’t have all of that with the Bitcoin. The Bitcoin is a creation from scratch. The Bitcoin is a beautiful bubble, carefully blown to huge proportions from the mixture of 1 cup of detergent, 8 cups of warm water and 4 teaspoons of glycerin. Driven by mad hope, unwavering faith, and boundless greed, the bubble flew to the sun.
They used to say that you should immediately discard your shares when the taxi driver starts to brag about his investments. I do not know what the sales signals are in the world of the cryptocurrency, but I was not at ease when I heard that even the VVD heard about it and argued in the European Election Program for ‘a crypto-euro’. When the journalist Jaap Jansen asked party leader Malik Azmani to explain this, Azmani fell silent for a moment to come back strong with: ‘It is stated in the election program that this is what they want. I’m not the author of that. I get it pressed in my hand. ”
Now the breath of the blowers stops. And they are there again, the ‘analysts’ and the ‘market experts’ who, with the courage of desperation, try to get rational explanations. There is something about arguing about protocols, or price manipulation, nobody knows for sure, in the up and down pieces it is full of phrases such as ‘could’ and ‘there are rumors about that’. They also do something.
One thing is certain: the Bitcoin is nothing.